Murphy up by 6, with 17 percent undecided in UConn/Courant Poll

Murphy up by 6, with 17 percent undecided in UConn/Courant Poll

Thursday, October 18, 2012

1 Comments

A new UConn/Courant Poll shows Democrat Chris Murphy with a 6-percentage point lead over Republican Linda McMahon in the U.S. Senate race, fueled by an increase in support from women. He leads, 44 percent to 38 percent, with 17 percent undecided.

The poll found McMahon dominating the eastern and western thirds of the state, but Murphy with a lead in the more populous central third, covering the heavily Demcratic Hartford and New Haven regions.

The survey of 574 voters was taken from Oct. 11 to 16. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Unlike other recent polls, the UConn survey shows Murphy with a strong favorable rating. Forty percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion, while 34 percent had an unfavorable opinion. McMahon's favorable/unfavorable split was 42 percent to 39 percent.

Republicans complained that the last UConn poll's sample was too light on unaffiliated voters, who outnumber both Democrats and Republicans in Connecticut. In the new poll, the sample was 50 percent Democrats, 16 percent unaffiliated and 34 percent Republicans.

By comparison, the last Quinnipiac University poll had a sample that was 34 percent Democrats, 38 percent unaffiliated and 23 percent Republicans.

McMahon leads among unaffiliateds in the UConn poll, 44 percent to 32 percent, so an undercount of unaffiliateds could significantly skew the results.

The UConn poll also has a much higher undecided vote. Quinnipiac University, for example, pushes undecided respondents to say towards whom they are leaning, and the leaners are added to the total.

The last Quinnipiac poll found McMahon leading by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent. It was released Oct. 4, three days before the first of three debates between McMahon and Murphy. The fourth and final debate is today.

UConn went into the field on Oct. 11, the same day as the second debate and finished its calls on the 16th, the day before the third debate. The polling occurred while Murphy mounted a major push to portray McMahon as weaker on women's issues, especially abortion and reproductive health.

The poll found Murphy leading among women, 50 percent to 32 percent, and McMahon leading among men, 45 percent to 37 percent.

For the first time the race, television advertising was roughly equal during the polling period. McMahon still heavily outspent Murphy on TV, but Murphy was assisted with ads run by outside groups.

Comments

Permalink

Murphy up by 6, with 17 percent undecided in UConn/Courant Poll

Submitted by maurao on 10/18/2012 12:10 pm

Perhaps WWE should not be asking the State of CT. for "job funding". Ms. McMahom can take all her money and plow it back into her business, rather than trying to buy an election.
We cannot say we have a democracy if we allow people with lots of cash to buy elections- either here in CT. or at the National level.
Ms. McMahan does not have the experience to be a Senator. There are already enough die hards in the Congress- our government gets nothing done. We do not need another polarizing personality in DC.
The question is truly, if a wealthy person outs a lot of money out in a campaign they must expect a way to re-coup that. We do not send these folks to DC to make their fortunes and future connections. They are there to represent the people who elected them- let's get back to that concept.
Mr. Murphy is a moderate Democrat, with experience and who gets on well with other people. He can identify with the Middle Class, the elderly and disabled. He is pro-education and pro-family
He would be a Senator that CT. can be proud of and would help to bring CT. back to some better place for all it's citizens.

Don't Miss This

Connecticut's gasoline tax explained

On July 1 motorists will experience one of the largest gasoline tax increases in Connecticut history.

Prices are estimated to rise nearly 4 cents per gallon.

Listen to a special CTMirror podcast.

State aid: How did your city or town make out?

Hartford will receive the most state aid next fiscal year -- some $257 million -- and Lyme the least, a little more than $300,000.

How did your city or town make out in aid to education and other grants? Was it one of the nine municipalities that will be flat-funded for the next two years?

Find out here

Special series on the Connecticut budget